Prediction Market Treasure

April 20, 2026 ·

Monday morning and Michael Saylor buys another 34,164 BTC, bringing his total up to 815,061 BTC of the 21 million bitcoin in total circulation. Tom Lee on the other hand doesn't appear much on my timeline nowadays; they both seem to be pushing the idea of treasury companies holding BTC and ETH as treasury assets. Like most innovation, an initial smart idea turns into massive hype, which people then confuse as solely hype, write off the entire thing including the incremental innovation underneath, and the thing then slowly creeps back up into existence. Dunning-Kruger type beat.

Wikipedia

Dunning–Kruger effect

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias that describes the systematic tendency of people with low ability in a specific area to give overly positive assessments of this ability. The term may also refer to the tendency of high performers to underestimate their skills. It was first identified by…

What's also starting to trend on my screens are prediction markets. I am yet to make a bet on these markets and the most I've used them till date are to track the last presidential election in America and the recent government shutdown. Previously I have mentioned that day-trading of any sorts, betting or otherwise, is objectively degenerative. So my analysis of it all doesn't need to be in-depth. If you're trading your money multiple times a day, the cost is infinitely higher than any prize you could be getting out of it. I see ads for Kalshi and Polymarket on my feeds, and while I personally have no opinion of them, I can tell people dislike them with the underneath feeling of them robbing clueless people blind and enriching the already rich and powerful type thing. I enjoyed Patrick Boyle's analysis of them I saw this last weekend. Patrick is much more skeptical of crypto than I am but I agree with his criticisms a lot; he knows what he's talking about.

In other news, I have made various back-end infrastructure updates to this website, none of which are visible on the front I don't think, but I really like them so far. Basically I have improved my experience of writing: it now auto-saves my half-written draft thoughts, provides me a cleaner, more rich interface to write my thoughts by giving me formatting tools, recent posts, previewing notes and what not. But best of all, I now have a behind-the-scenes mechanism to take this blogging thing up a notch and start collecting my thoughts into a long-form book of sorts. I don't know what will come of that, but hopefully I can use these tools and write a book systematizing my thoughts, which for now are a bit sporadic. We'll see how that works out.

Prediction market on me writing a book?